鮑威爾發佈會：利率尚未充分 暫停加息

 北京時間周四凌晨3點30分，美聯儲主席鮑威爾舉行新聞發佈會，對後續的貨幣政策給出最新指引。在早些時候的決議中，美聯儲如期將加息幅度放慢至25個基點，將聯邦基金利率區間上調至4.50%-4.75%。

　　與市場預期一致，鮑威爾在開場講話中繼續強調「加息事業仍未完成」。對於本周繼續加息25個基點的決策，鮑威爾也表示在接連兩次FOMC會議上放慢加息步伐，將幫助美聯儲更好地評估實現政策目標的情況，進一步加息也將幫助實現限制性的貨幣政策立場。美聯儲仍將視後續的經濟數據和前景來做出決策。

　　美聯儲主席強調，歷史「強烈警告」我們不能過早地放鬆貨幣政策，美聯儲將維持目前的舉措，直到實現2%通脹目標的事業大功告成。

　　暫停加息成熱門議題

　　在後續的問答環節中，鮑威爾在回答第一個問題時就明確表示，貨幣政策委員會判斷目前利率並沒有達到充分限制性，這也是後面還要繼續加息的原因。

　　由於本次政策會議並沒有經濟預測和點陣圖，所以也有記者提問去年12月的點陣圖是否仍能反映出FOMC當前的加息路徑預期。

　　鮑威爾表示，在去年12月的經濟預期中，FOMC委員們的平均預期是本輪加息終點將在5%-5.25%之間。我們要到下個月的會議才會更新點陣圖，現在只能說繼續加息是實現通脹目標的合適舉措。目前美聯儲並沒有決定終值利率到底會在哪裡。要管理加息不足的風險是非常困難的，如果6到9個月後發現加息不夠，屆時可能會出現通脹預期的風險。

　　隨後，被稱為「新美聯儲通訊社」的知名宏觀記者尼克·蒂米勞斯詢問美聯儲主席：接下來還要繼續加息的原因是什麼，為什麼現在不能停止加息。

　　鮑威爾回應稱，過去一年加息450個基點后，我們正在討論還需要進行多次加息（a couple of more rate hikes）才能達到合適的限制性區間。為什麼美聯儲會認為這麼做是合適的？因為通脹仍處於非常火熱的狀態。但美聯儲也知道貨幣政策的滯后性，以及實際生活的不確定性。這也是為什麼我們降低加息速度，進一步觀察通貨膨脹速度下降的狀態。

　　蒂米勞斯進一步追問鮑威爾，本周FOMC是否有討論過暫停加息的條件。美聯儲主席委婉地表示，等到三周後會議紀要出爐時，會披露更多的細節。這兩天FOMC委員們花了很多時間討論有關暫停加息、經濟狀況的問題。

　　對於「暫停加息的前提條件」，鮑威爾表示到3月FOMC前還會有兩份CPI數據和非農報告。更多的數據出爐也將影響美聯儲的經濟前景預期，同樣會反映到貨幣政策中。

　　不過美聯儲主席也繼續強調年內不會降息的立場。鮑威爾表示，如果美聯儲預期的經濟前景成真，那麼在今年看不到降息。但如果通脹下降的速度比預期快，屆時美聯儲也會有對應的政策。在發佈會中鮑威爾也表示「今天可以第一次說反通貨膨脹的進程已經開始了」。

　　最後，對於今天美聯儲利率決議中全面刪除有關公共衛生問題的表述，鮑威爾也解釋稱，他的親身經歷說明了新冠疫情仍然在那裡，但對於美國經濟而言已經不是重要的影響因素。美聯儲一直在尋找合適的時機拿掉相關表述，現在就到時候了。

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